Guoxin Securities - Textile And Garment Industry Investment Strategy In January

Abstract:

Investment strategy: short-term defense oriented, layout performance certainty target.

Maintain neutral rating of plates.

In the context of macroeconomic downturns, the outlook for the industry boom is still uncertain. Although the intensive consumption policy is conducive to overcoming pessimistic expectations to a certain extent, it is expected that short-term data will remain under pressure due to the high base number of Q1 last year due to the cold winter and the lag of the spring Festival.

We should continue to propose three dimensions, namely, differentiation of consumption, intergenerational change and industrial upgrading, to select leading enterprises in high quality track, in line with the development trend of the industry, and in the subdivision sector already has certain competitive advantages.

In the short term, we suggest that we should focus on meeting the current consumption trends, and achieve high growth through endogenous extension, which is not affected by the fluctuation of performance base in the short term.

Plate ten years to re plate: with the fundamentals as the axis, industrial pformation is expected to be strong leader Heng Qiang

We divided the market trend of the spinning and weaving board in 08 years -18 into four segments.

第一阶段：08 年初-11 年Q2，板块收益率持续跑赢大盘，服装家纺板块处于行业高速成长期，竞争宽松，众多龙头上市，业绩高速成长，纺织制造板块虽然竞争激烈，但要素成本较低，且下游需求旺盛；第二阶段：11 年Q3-13 年Q2, 板块收益率跑输大盘，服装家纺板块行业增速下滑，渠道变革和竞争加剧下板块公司基本面表现挣扎，纺织制造板块受棉价大幅下跌、人力成本上涨以及环保压力陡增影响，业绩下滑较大；第三阶段：13 年Q3-16 年底，板块收益率跑赢大盘但后期波动明显，行业基本面出现分化，但在市场风格偏好中小票背景下，板块走势较好；第四阶段：17 年初-18 年末，板块跑输大盘，17 年个别子板块复苏，但18 年经济下行压力下板块承压明显，其中龙头企业改革已初见成效，未来有望实现强者恒强。

Textile and clothing / cosmetics retail sales increased by 8.1/ 10.5% over the same period in 1-11 months.

In 18 years and 1-11 months, the retail sales of clothing above the limit increased by 8.1%, an increase of 0.5pct over the same period last year, while the retail sales of cosmetics increased by 10.5% over the same period last year, a decrease of 2.0pct over the same period last year, while the social zero increased by 9.1%, a decrease of 1.2pct over the same period last year.

On the whole, compared with other consumer categories, the overall performance of the clothing sector has been steadily rising for 18 years, but the growth rate of the cosmetics sector is slowing down obviously.

In addition, during the 1-11 months, online retail sales increased by 24.1%, of which 25.4% of the online retail sales of physical goods increased, and the penetration rate was 18.2%.

Market Overview: in December, the overall plate fell 3.5%, and lost 1.5 points.

In December, the SW textile and clothing index fell 3.5%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 2%, and the plate lost 1.5 points.

Among them, textile manufacturing fell 3.2%, apparel home textiles fell 3.6%.

Judging from the annual market changes, as of 12.31, the SW textile and apparel index fell 33.5%, the running loss index of 13.9 points, of which the textile manufacturing sector fell 33.1%, the apparel home textile plate fell 33.5%, respectively running the index 13.4, 13.9 points.

Risk warning: consumption expectations are uncertain, and industry continues to decline.