The Supply And Demand Of Cotton Are Tight In The Year, But The Supply Of National Reserves Is Adequate.

In 2014/15, China's total supply of cotton is about 20 million 800 thousand tons, and its consumption is about 7 million 200 thousand tons. The supply exceeds demand, and the stock continues to accumulate 14 million 800 thousand tons. In the 2015 year, the supply declined to 20 million 100 thousand tons, the demand dropped to 7 million 130 thousand tons, and the stock dropped to 1417 million tons, but it was still very high.

Among them, supply includes state-owned cotton, new cotton, imported cotton, and carry over stock in the hands of enterprises.

By the end of 2015, the stock of national cotton reserves is still around 1015 tons, which can be said to occupy.

Half of the country, this part of the market can not be freely circulated, and it is necessary for the relevant departments to throw the stock to form an effective supply. Therefore, we define this as a potential pressure and stimulate the market once the market has risen. In the 2015 year, the import quota of cotton is limited by the quota system and the supply is limited. The responsible person of the NDRC said that the import of cotton will continue to be strictly controlled in 2016, and that the import duties within the tariff will still be limited to the level of 89.4 WTO tons at the agreed bottom line.

This year's production and demand point of view, the total domestic cotton demand in this year is about 7 million 130 thousand tons, and the 5 million 300 thousand tons of new cotton supply +89 million tons of import quotas, which still have a gap of about 900 thousand tons, and this year's 7-8 months, 20 days, many days of high temperature weather affect the quality of new cotton, resulting in short fiber, high horse value, and machine picked cotton still have various problems, resulting in relatively high quality cotton shortage. It is not ruled out that in the near future, after the new cotton market has been concentrating, with the reduction of cotton resources, there will be a certain rebound in the market before the sale of national cotton and cotton, but it will not go higher. Because of the threat of the dumping of the Central Cotton store, the market is expected to sell about 5 million 300 thousand tons of cotton in March. Alone

It is understood that Shandong Dezhou Mu net profit -616.45 yuan, a decrease of 227.92 yuan, Xiajin Mu net profit -520.32 yuan, a decrease of 150.36 yuan in the same period; Jiangsu Fengxian County Mu net profit of -268.16 yuan, a decrease of 261.24 yuan.

Therefore, cotton planting area in China is expected to continue to shrink in 2016, inventory will continue to be digested, and inventory consumption will further decline.

From the point of view of the relationship between stock consumption ratio and futures price in the past years, the price will still be relatively weak in the early stage of stock going out, but after further inventory, the market will find bottom and rise again.

Grain prices have risen steadily in recent years.

The price fluctuation was very unstable. In 2015, cotton prices fell to the lowest level in 6 years. Cotton planting efficiency was relatively low, and cotton planting area continued to decline in 2015 years.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, the planting area decreased by 20% in 2015.

Among them, the mainland probably decreased by 40%.

The reduction in Xinjiang should be around 10%.

Overall, cotton yield per unit area in China is about 3% this year.

During the cotton growing season, the yield per unit area decreased, but the weather in the Yellow River River Basin was good. The yield per unit area increased significantly. In addition, the output of some parts of Xinjiang decreased due to the high temperature in 7-8 months.

Based on the obvious decline of planting area, China's cotton production in 2015/16 was 5 million 300 thousand tons, down 16% compared with the same period last year.

The cost of cotton planting continued to rise in 2015, but the yield was still more pessimistic, especially in the mainland, due to the weak cotton prices and the decline in unit yields.