The Situation Of Global Economic Recession Is Not Good, The Consumer Market Is Insufficient, And The Export Of Textile And Clothing Declines

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in October 2022, the retail sales of China's clothing goods reached 83.86 billion yuan, down 9.2% year-on-year; From January to October, the accumulated retail sales of clothing goods were 739.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5% year on year. At the same time, the domestic "double 11" war report is not good. From October 31 to November 11, the cumulative sales volume of the whole network was 1115.4 billion yuan, which increased by 150.28 billion yuan or 15.57% compared with 965.12 billion yuan in the same period of 2021, but there was a big gap with the growth level of previous years. Among them, the sales volume of clothing category was 1389.9 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9% year-on-year, which was lower than the total increase.

The global economic recession still shows no signs of easing, the economic situation is not good, the overseas consumer market is insufficient, and the export orders continue to be depressed. According to the statistics of the customs, in October 2022, China's textile and clothing export volume was US $25.024 billion, down 13.53% year-on-year and 10.79% month on month; In the traditional consumption peak season, the cumulative export volume of textiles and clothing from September to October was 53.075 billion US dollars, down 8.60% year on year.

As of November 18, the start-up load of textile enterprises in mainstream areas was 62.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.9%. The main reasons for the decline in the start-up rate of textile enterprises were as follows: first, the cotton delivery was blocked, the supply of cotton in the mainland was insufficient, and the raw material inventory of textile enterprises was running at a low level, so they were forced to reduce the start-up load to maintain production; Second, the performance of textile enterprises' orders is poor, the orders of downstream buyers are insufficient, and the release of terminal demand is limited; Third, the market purchasing power has declined, and textile and clothing consumption has been degraded.

With the listing of new cotton, the supply and demand report of various institutions has become more rigorous. According to the latest USDA data report, China's cotton supply and demand pattern remained loose in November. In terms of output, the domestic cotton output in 2022 / 2023 was 6.096 million tons, which was flat month on month; In terms of import volume, the cotton import volume in 2022 / 2023 is 1.894 million tons, with a decrease of 43000 tons on a month on month basis. In terms of consumption, domestic cotton consumption in 2022 / 2023 was 7.947 million tons, with a decrease of 218000 tons on a month on month basis. Loose supply remains unchanged.

To sum up, cotton supply and demand fundamentals are still weak. On the one hand, new cotton has been listed in succession, and cotton supply continues to be loose; On the other hand, the performance of downstream demand is weak, domestic sales orders are tarnished, and the export market is hindered. In the case of weakening driving force of domestic and foreign sales, it is expected that the upward space of cotton price is limited.