RMB'S Rapid Appreciation Is Difficult To Sustain.

The middle price has risen by 187 basis points.

On the first trading day after the Mid Autumn Festival, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has attracted considerable attention from the market.

According to the latest data from China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar yesterday was 6.152, a 187 basis point increase over the previous 6.1707, setting the biggest one-day gain in nearly three years.

Spot exchange rate also jumped to 6.1316 half year high.

Recently, the US dollar index has been stronger, rising from 81.5 level in mid August to 84.32, the highest value since July 2013. The market forecasts that the RMB will weaken against the US dollar.

But in fact, the strong trend of the US dollar did not affect the upward trend of the RMB against the US dollar, but let the renminbi get the biggest single day increase since November 2010.

There is a view that the central bank can control the rise or fall of the RMB exchange rate by setting the daily fixed price, so that its daily ups and downs are limited to a maximum of no more than 2% of the fixed price.

Then, does the rise in the middle price yesterday mean that the central bank intends to raise the RMB exchange rate? In this regard, Zhao Xijun, vice president of the school of Finance and finance of Renmin University of China, told the Beijing Commercial Daily that the central parity of the RMB reflected the wishes of the central bank, but also reflected the willingness of the market, but the market will take the fundamental position.

Xu Bo, a researcher at the financial research center of Bank of Communications (601328, stock bar), also pointed out that the central bank recently has little intervention in the RMB exchange rate, and the whole is hoping for a moderate fluctuation in the RMB exchange rate.

The central bank's central parity mainly depends on the bank's quotations. Yesterday's central parity rose sharply, reflecting the market's supply and demand in theory.

In the industry view, the RMB exchange rate rise has benefited from the exceptions of the trade surplus.

According to the data released by the customs, in August this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 367 billion 94 million US dollars, up 4% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports were US $208 billion 465 million, an increase of 9.4% over the same period last year, and imports of US $158 billion 629 million, an increase of -2.4% over the same period, two consecutive months of negative growth, and a trade surplus of US $49 billion 836 million, a record high for two consecutive months.

On the one hand, on the one hand, it benefits from the global economic recovery. On the other hand, it benefits from the improvement of population base and labor quality.

The weak growth in imports is the main reason for the new trade surplus.

The growth rate of imports and exports has been greatly deviated. Strong exports and weak imports will lead to an imbalance in foreign trade development.

This will not only bring pressure on RMB appreciation, but also impede the pformation of foreign trade.

Domestic demand remains weak, and the general decline in import prices is the main reason for the weak growth in imports.

Zhao Xijun pointed out why yesterday's sudden increase in the RMB exchange rate caused by various reasons at home and abroad.

The trade surplus released in August, which was released on Monday, is another month's record high, which means that foreign exchange inflows will increase and foreign exchange supply will increase.

In addition, the economic growth rate in the first few months of the country is very high, and the domestic revenue and expenditure situation is improving.

In addition, the recent call for "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" has great impact on the domestic stock market. The layout of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the capital will also make the RMB exchange rate appreciate.

This year can be called the first year of the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate. In the first half of the year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar ended many years' unilateral appreciation trend, with the highest value being over 3.5%.

Since July, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has maintained a trend of volatility.

Yesterday, a sharp rise in the renminbi would bring the Renminbi back to its appreciation channel. Most analysts hold a negative view.

Xu Bo told the Beijing Commercial Daily reporter that in the short term, there is room for appreciation of the renminbi, but in the long run, the weakness of trade demand can not be resumed in the short term and there will still be devaluation pressure in the future.

Zhao Xijun believes that the trend of the future RMB will be in the upward and lower trends, and it is difficult for a single side appreciation and unilateral devaluation to be difficult to appear in the short term.

"Although the domestic economic situation seems to be relatively weak and the RMB has depreciating pressure, the growth rate of the domestic market is still higher than that of other countries. From the perspective of supporting currency stability, the pressure of currency appreciation is stronger than that of other countries. Therefore, the pressure of devaluation will also exist in the future RMB market, and the pressure of appreciation will be very difficult."

Zhao Xijun explained.