Cotton Price Forecast On March 17, 2013 In Xinji, Hebei Province

at present Xinji, Hebei Some cotton enterprises have already stopped the seed cotton purchasing work, and those who insist on purchasing will finish next week at the latest; At present, with the warm weather, cotton farmers begin to prepare for sowing before planting cotton. However, due to the large investment in cotton planting, time-consuming and laborious, and the income and benefit are lower than other crops, so the enthusiasm of cotton planting of cotton farmers is getting lower and lower.

Day ahead distance store up There are more than ten days to finish, most of the local cotton enterprises are ready to stop the seed cotton purchase next week. Recently, the purchase price of local 4-grade seed cotton was 4.00 yuan / jin (lint percentage)
35% and the moisture regain rate is 11%. The daily purchase quantity is about 20000-30000. If the loss is 3% and the processing cost is 600 yuan / ton, the equivalent production cost of grade 4 lint is 19000 yuan / ton, which is paid and stored by cotton enterprises
The grade is 428 grade lint, and the profit margin is about 500 yuan / ton.
The spot market continued to maintain a stable state. The sales price of grade 4 lint without yard bags on that day was 19000 yuan / ton (net weight with ticket), the sales price of weak grade 4 cotton was 18800 yuan / ton, and the sales price of grade 5 cotton was
17000 yuan / ton, Xinjiang real estate grade 3 cotton quotation is 20500 yuan / ton, Australian cotton SM class quotation is 20500-20700 yuan / ton, American cotton quotation is 20000 yuan / ton, Mali cotton quotation is 20500 yuan / ton
19300 yuan / ton, both flat compared with yesterday.

It is understood that due to the rapid rise in labor costs, most of the local labor went out to work to earn money, and their enthusiasm for cotton planting decreased year after year. Last year, the local cotton planting cost was more than 500 yuan / mu
The yield is 400 kg, and the average selling price of seed cotton is 3.90 yuan / kg (affected by the local geographical environment, the percentage of lint is generally low, mostly 33-35%), and the yield per mu of cotton planting is about 1000 yuan, which is still the same
Excluding the cost of artificial land, the average income of a normal laborer going out to work is 3000 yuan / month, and the income of a cotton planting season is more than 20000 yuan. Therefore, the local elderly with weak surplus labor capacity are only willing to plant less
Things such as corn and wheat, cotton planting enthusiasm has declined.

Affected by the negative effects of the peripheral market, Domestic cotton by-products The market has entered a period of shock and consolidation, with the rise and fall of products. The selling price of cottonseed oil is 7700 yuan / ton, which is the same as yesterday
The price difference of palm oil is more than 1600 yuan / ton. The advantage of cotton oil blending is not obvious. The market is in a weak state and the transaction is relatively light. Although the high cottonseed price supports the cotton oil price, the domestic oil and oil market is under great pressure,
It is expected that cotton oil price will be in a weak finishing trend; The selling price of cottonseed meal was 2620 yuan / ton, increased by 60 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. The inventory of meal market is small, and the demand of some meal products in the market is in short supply, which drives the price protection of cottonseed meal
It has maintained a strong momentum; The selling price of cotton linter was 3500 yuan / ton, and the selling price of cotton shell was 980 yuan / ton, which was the same as yesterday. The selling price of cottonseed was 1.27 yuan / Jin, down 0.01 yuan / Jin compared with yesterday.
It is understood that the main reasons for the slight decline in cottonseed prices are as follows: first, the market of cotton by-products is weak, some products are in a falling market, cotton oil manufacturers are facing losses, and their enthusiasm for purchasing cottonseed has declined slightly; Second, seed cotton resources are relatively scarce recently, and the quality of seed cotton on the market has declined compared with the previous period. Although the number of cottonseed on the market has decreased and the cotton enterprises have strong willingness to stand up for price, the cotton oil manufacturers have a little strict requirements on the quality of cottonseed procurement, and the price of slightly inferior cottonseed has decreased.