PTA'S Long And Medium Term Downward Trend Is Not Yet Completed.

Last week, PTA futures once tested 10000 yuan pass, but failed to break down, but started oscillation on 10000 Yuan line.

However, due to the fact that the market is still not very active, the driving force of the price rises is insufficient. In addition, the PX price shocks and the continuous fall in the cotton price are all dragging down the PTA price.

PTA will continue to oscillate at 10000 yuan in the short term, but the potential for a long and medium term decline is not yet over.

downstream

Recently, the daily turnover of China's Textile City reached more than 9 million meters, and the highest level last year was less than 7 million meters / day.

At present, the demand for terminal is very good, but the production and sale of its upstream polyester products can only be said to be more stable. The production and sales of the enterprises are maintained at seven to ten percent daily, and the stock is still not effectively released.

Comparing the upstream and downstream situation, we can see that the downstream hot atmosphere has not been pmitted to polyester polyester links upward. The main reason is that the enthusiasm of traders to participate in the market is relatively low, and the market purchase and sale are mainly rigid demand, while speculative demand is relatively weak, and the market activity is difficult to improve.

Domestic credit will continue to tighten and the financing cost of traders will rise, which will continue to restrict market speculation.

In addition, as the weather gets warmer, the consumption of textile and clothing will gradually enter the off-season.

In addition, the problem of power shortage will be restricted in the market.

At present, the Canton Fair is in progress. From the end of the first and two phases, the main problem is the rise in the price of orders and the decline in corporate profits.

The price of raw materials and labor costs and appreciation of the renminbi and other factors led to a sharp rise in the price of orders. Enterprises reflected that orders prices generally increased by 5% to 10%, but profits did not grow.

Many enterprises say that because of the difficulty of shifting costs, large orders do not even have profits. Therefore, enterprises are very cautious about taking orders.

According to statistics, the first half of the Canton Fair accounted for 89%.

The two phase of the exhibition ended on the 23 day. Statistics from the light industry chamber of Commerce showed that as of April 25th, the total turnover of light industry was 4 billion 540 million dollars, up only 0.02% from the same period last year. Besides daily ceramics and furniture, other gifts, toys and consumer goods have declined to varying degrees.

At present, the three phase of Canton Fair, which is mainly composed of textiles, clothing, footwear, bags, food and medical products, is in progress. The phenomenon of single dares is still very prominent, especially those small and medium-sized export enterprises with relatively low competitiveness.

Increased supply will keep pressure rising.

Generally speaking, the terminal demand is compared to the "sewer" of the industrial chain. At present, the terminal demand situation of PTA is not optimistic, and its price pmission is bound to be blocked, so the price will be under pressure.

Through the above analysis, we can think that the demand for polyester polyester may continue to remain at a low temperature, but this year's large-scale production of new polyester capacity will put more pressure on the market.

According to preliminary statistics, in 2011, more than 6 million tons of new polyester production capacity were put into operation, but the capacity of the market did not increase significantly.

In the short term, because the ten thousand point pass is an important psychological barrier, some traders and polyester factories try to find cheap goods in the market. In addition, polyester enterprises adopt the sales volume of preferential volume to stimulate consumption or will be the strength of PTA rebound in the short term.

In the long run, the domestic polyester polyester consumption situation is not optimistic, and with the large number of PTA and new polyester production capacity, the situation will become increasingly severe.

And PX prices remain weak oscillation, it is difficult to form a strong support for the PTA period price. Commodity market decline is also an important pressure facing PTA. Therefore, the price will continue downward after the 10000 pass oscillation.