RMB Appreciation And Export Slowdown: China'S Textile And Apparel Industry Is Facing Big Exams

In 2008, it will become the year of final examination for China's textile and garment industry.

The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States triggered the global concern about the economic recession in the United States. As an important importing country in China's textile and apparel industry, the slowdown in US consumption will inevitably reduce the driving force of China's textile exports; and the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi this year will undoubtedly compress the profit margins of textile and garment exports. Meanwhile, the rise of internal cost pressures has also intensified the structural adjustment of the industry.

Internal and external problems, new and old pain, textile and garment industry is worrying, some people say that China's textile industry has gone to "the most difficult ten years" pass.

The subprime mortgage crisis, which began in February 2007 and broke out in July last year, has not only triggered the violent turmoil in the global financial market, but also affected many industries.

For the subprime crisis, the current focus is on concerns about the US recession. Despite the fact that the US government has not publicly acknowledged the economic downturn, the slowdown in the US economy is an indisputable fact, and the main agencies have also lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2008.

Economic slowdown has led to weak consumption, and China's textile and garment industry has also become one of the "victims".

From the data point of view, China's textile and clothing exports to the United States accounted for only 14.3% of the total export volume in 2007, and the EU and other Asian countries digested more exports.

But this is just the surface.

In fact, after absorbing a large number of Chinese exports to Asia, the final demand of many economies still depends on the US and European markets; and the European Union and Japan, which are closely related to the US economy, will also be dragged down, which is the fundamental factor that affects China's textile industry.

Wang Qian, editor in chief of China's first textile network, said that if the US recession really becomes a reality, it will have an impact on China's textile exports through three aspects: the decline in US consumption directly leads to a decline in demand for imports; the US recession will also lead to increased pressure on trade protectionism; "made in China" will face more barriers to trade protectionism, which will weaken the international competitiveness of China's textile export commodities; the global economy will be further reduced by the US drag, and the export growth of China's major trading partners to the EU will also face downside risks in the context of the worsening external economic environment.

These worries are not "groundless."

The first two months of the year are usually the most concentrated months of China's textile and clothing exports, which directly affect the quality of a year's harvest. It seems that the first two months of this year are not very optimistic.

Customs data show that in January 2008, China's textile and clothing exports increased by US $14 billion 984 million, an increase of 25.21%, of which 5 billion 575 million US dollars in textile exports and 9 billion 409 million US dollars in clothing exports, which increased by 33.63% and 20.71% respectively. In February, the export volume of textiles and garments was 10 billion 288 million US dollars, down by 8.5%, of which the export of textiles was 3 billion 794 million US dollars, down by 0.71% compared to the same period last year.

For the rapid decline in February, the snowstorm and the Spring Festival are very influential.

Analysis of January data, the first textile network editor in chief Wang Qian pointed out that in January, textile and garment exports increased by 25.21%, especially textile exports increased by 33.63%, higher than last year's level; but from January textile and garment exports accounted for the proportion of total exports, from last year's 14.02% to 13.98%.

According to the rule of textile and garment export changes before and after the past year, it is assumed that the proportion of textile and garment exports will continue to decline this year.

According to the latest news of the Ministry of Commerce, according to statistics from the Department of textiles and clothing of the US Department of Commerce (OTEXA), in January 2008, the United States imported 1 billion 660 million square meters of textile and clothing from China, down 3.1% from the same period last year, the amount of $2 billion 590 million, down 7.7% from the same period last year.

My share of total imports in the United States increased from 39.9% in the same period last year to 40.2% this year, and the share in total imports fell from 35.3% in the same period last year to 33.9% this year.

This is the second consecutive month of negative growth in imports and exports of textiles and clothing in the United States.

In addition to the US subprime mortgage crisis, a race against appreciation is also being carried out in the textile and garment industry, and many enterprises have suffered a significant reduction in profits during the continuous appreciation process.

Last year, the trend of the RMB exchange rate in the capital market "fast bull" also appeared at the same time. At the end of the year, the RMB exchange rate was 1 yuan to 7.3046 yuan, an increase of 6.9% over the end of last year.

The appreciation of the renminbi accelerated in 2008. As of March 17th, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.0815, the highest level since the exchange rate reform in third consecutive days, and has appreciated 14.52% since the reform. It has appreciated 3.15% over the past year.

Between the appreciation of the renminbi and the depreciation of the US dollar, the income of the export enterprises is indirectly engulfed.

In addition to bringing direct exchange losses to textile enterprises, the more serious ones are: compressing the profit margins of textile enterprises, while weakening the price advantage of product exports and reducing the volume.

Last year, the relevant departments estimated that the sales profit margin of the clothing industry will drop by 1-4%, with an appreciation of RMB 1%.

Although the data may be slightly exaggerated, the compression of profit space is indeed in front of enterprises.

Sun Huaibin, spokesman of the China Textile Industry Association, once said that the overall profit margin of China's textile industry is 3.9%, and its affordability is very limited. The appreciation of the renminbi will inevitably further reduce the profit margins of textile and garment enterprises.

Relative to the external environment, internal pressure caused by rising costs has become the "heart disease" of textile enterprises in recent two years.

Among them, the rising cost of raw materials and rising labor costs are undoubtedly the two hurdles in front of spinning enterprises.

As the main raw material of the textile industry, cotton is about 65% in the cost structure of cotton textile enterprises, while there is a situation of imbalance between supply and demand in China's cotton, and the gap is large.

Guotai Junan Securities textile clothing